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JEE Main 202325 JanuaryEvening Shift
Exam
JEE Main
Year
2023
Date
25 January
Shift
Evening Shift
Subject
Mathematics
Chapter
Probability

JEE Main 2023 · 25 January · Evening Shift · Mathematics · Probability

25 % of the population are smokers. A smoker has 27 times more...

2525 % of the population are smokers. A smoker has 2727 times more chances to develop lung cancer then a non-smoker. A person is diagnosed with lung cancer and the probability that this person is a smoker is k10\dfrac{k}{10}.Then the value of kk is _____ .

Correct answer

0

Step-by-step solution

Given,

In a city, 2525 % of the population is smoker

So, P(smoker)=0.25P\left(\text{smoker}\right) = 0 . 25

P(non-smoking)=0.75P\left(\text{non-smoking}\right) = 0 . 75

And smoker has 2727 times more chance of being diagnosed with lung cancer,

So, if P(Lung cancernon-smoker)=pP\left(\dfrac{\text{Lung cancer}}{\text{non-smoker}}\right) = p then P(Lung cancersmoker)=27pP\left(\dfrac{\text{Lung cancer}}{\text{smoker}}\right) = 27p,

Now, a person is selected at random and found to be diagnosed with lung cancer,

So, total probability of having a lung cancer will be

P(Lung cancer)=0.25×27p+0.75×pP\left(\text{Lung cancer}\right) = 0 . 25 \times 27p + 0 . 75 \times p

So the probability of him being smoker (using bayes' theorem) will be P(smokerLung cancer)=0.25×27p0.25×27p+0.75×p=2730=910P\left(\dfrac{\text{smoker}}{\text{Lung cancer}}\right) = \dfrac{0 . 25 \times 27p}{0 . 25 \times 27p + 0 . 75 \times p} = \dfrac{27}{30} = \dfrac{9}{10}

Now comparing with k10=910\dfrac{k}{10} = \dfrac{9}{10},

Then the value of kk will be 99.

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