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NDA 2025
Exam
NDA
Year
2025
Subject
Mathematics
Chapter
Probability

NDA 2025 · Mathematics · Probability

Consider the following for the two (02) items that follow: The...

Consider the following for the two (02) items that follow:
The probabilities that AA, BB and CC become managers are 310\dfrac{3}{10}, 12\dfrac{1}{2} and 45\dfrac{4}{5} respectively. The probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if AA, BB and CC become managers are 49\dfrac{4}{9}, 29\dfrac{2}{9} and 13\dfrac{1}{3} respectively.

If the bonus scheme has been introduced, then what is the probability that the manager appointed was BB?

Options

  1. A523\dfrac{5}{23}
  2. B623\dfrac{6}{23}
  3. C723\dfrac{7}{23}
  4. D823\dfrac{8}{23}

Correct answer

A. 523\dfrac{5}{23}

Step-by-step solution

Let E1E_1, E2E_2, and E3E_3 be the events that AA, BB, and CC become managers respectively.

Given probabilities are:
P(E1)=310P(E_1) = \dfrac{3}{10}
P(E2)=12P(E_2) = \dfrac{1}{2}
P(E3)=45P(E_3) = \dfrac{4}{5}

Let XX be the event that the bonus scheme is introduced. The conditional probabilities are:
P(X∣E1)=49P(X|E_1) = \dfrac{4}{9}
P(X∣E2)=29P(X|E_2) = \dfrac{2}{9}
P(X∣E3)=13P(X|E_3) = \dfrac{1}{3}

We need to find the probability that BB was appointed as the manager given that the bonus scheme was introduced, which is P(E2∣X)P(E_2|X).

Using Bayes' theorem:
P(E2∣X)=P(E2)P(X∣E2)P(E1)P(X∣E1)+P(E2)P(X∣E2)+P(E3)P(X∣E3)P(E_2|X) = \dfrac{P(E_2)P(X|E_2)}{P(E_1)P(X|E_1) + P(E_2)P(X|E_2) + P(E_3)P(X|E_3)}

Calculating the individual terms:
P(E1)P(X∣E1)=310×49=1290=645P(E_1)P(X|E_1) = \dfrac{3}{10} \times \dfrac{4}{9} = \dfrac{12}{90} = \dfrac{6}{45}

P(E2)P(X∣E2)=12×29=19=545P(E_2)P(X|E_2) = \dfrac{1}{2} \times \dfrac{2}{9} = \dfrac{1}{9} = \dfrac{5}{45}

P(E3)P(X∣E3)=45×13=415=1245P(E_3)P(X|E_3) = \dfrac{4}{5} \times \dfrac{1}{3} = \dfrac{4}{15} = \dfrac{12}{45}

Total probability of introducing the bonus scheme is:
P(X)=645+545+1245=2345P(X) = \dfrac{6}{45} + \dfrac{5}{45} + \dfrac{12}{45} = \dfrac{23}{45}

Substituting the values into Bayes' theorem:
P(E2∣X)=5452345=523P(E_2|X) = \dfrac{\dfrac{5}{45}}{\dfrac{23}{45}} = \dfrac{5}{23}

Answer: 523\dfrac{5}{23}
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