NDA 2025
- Exam
- NDA
- Year
- 2025
- Subject
- Mathematics
- Chapter
- Probability
NDA 2025 · Mathematics · Probability
Consider the following for the two (02) items that follow: The...
Consider the following for the two (02) items that follow:
The probabilities that , and become managers are , and respectively. The probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if , and become managers are , and respectively.
If the bonus scheme has been introduced, then what is the probability that the manager appointed was ?
The probabilities that , and become managers are , and respectively. The probabilities that bonus scheme will be introduced if , and become managers are , and respectively.
If the bonus scheme has been introduced, then what is the probability that the manager appointed was ?
Options
- A
- B
- C
- D
Correct answer
A.
Step-by-step solution
Let , , and be the events that , , and become managers respectively.
Given probabilities are:
Let be the event that the bonus scheme is introduced. The conditional probabilities are:
We need to find the probability that was appointed as the manager given that the bonus scheme was introduced, which is .
Using Bayes' theorem:
Calculating the individual terms:
Total probability of introducing the bonus scheme is:
Substituting the values into Bayes' theorem:
Answer:
Given probabilities are:
Let be the event that the bonus scheme is introduced. The conditional probabilities are:
We need to find the probability that was appointed as the manager given that the bonus scheme was introduced, which is .
Using Bayes' theorem:
Calculating the individual terms:
Total probability of introducing the bonus scheme is:
Substituting the values into Bayes' theorem:
Answer: